Monday, May 4, 2020

Mr. Buffet's 2020 AGM-Key Extracts

Mr. Buffet's AGM's is always an inspiration was as 5 hours event in 2020, but of absolute blissfulness. The ghost of speculations runs-away whenever you listen to Warren Buffet . 
Its also the first time Mr. Buffet used PPT in his whole career & kicks off the meeting by saying "who says you can't teach old dog new tricks!". The key takeaways from the AGM were :

  1. Great depression, forced many people to loose faith in market DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) was at 381 points (In Sept, 1929) & after 3 months it fell 48% to 198. All so-called smart-fund-managers said "you never want a serious crisis to go to waste". Then after another 10 months (August 1929) market went up 20% (To 240 points) from 1929 low  & then there was a long-long great-depression for 20 years. (In 1932 DJIA went to 41 points!, while in Jan 1951 it reached 240 points).
  2. Still as a country US,  endured, persevered & prospered - Today DJIAis above 24,000 points. This reminds of Mr. Taleb's anti-fragile lesson,  human-beings are most anti-fragile species (Things that gain from dis-order, which always comes back more strongly) amongst all .
  3. You can't time the market - Impact of COVID is uncertain nobody can time the market (Nobody in 1929 could have predicted 20 years of market reaching no-where). Historically there were several instances of shutting down of markets (In 1924 for 4 months, after 9/11 for 4 days). COVID brings unique uncertainty on the table. No body knows if the second attack is on the offing (During winters) & how will that impact the market. People have different fear quotient (Fear Psychosis) & should accordingly take positions (Wait or take plunge) in current market. 
  4. Farm example - If you own a farmland & the owner next to you keeps asking you to buy your farm or sell his on daily basis, that's ridiculous. You are not obliged to listen to this guy.  Man people take advantage of you by telling you that they know how much this farm would produce tomorrow, day-after, next year etc & hence inducing you to buy/sell. If there is no change in fundamental business pre-post COVID, one should not sell one's stocks. Outsmarting advisors or other people in the industry is not the right approach for investing. 
  5. 40% cash position - Buffet has not taken plunge (To buy) in the current market as he says he is always prepared for the worst time (Both for himself along with his insurers). Being hyper-conservative & hyper-aggressive is reflective of Buffet's investment style. Mother nature & Gods are also hyper-conservative. Please note we humans have 2 eyes, 2 ears, 2 hands etc Any fund-manager in the name of optimization would have negotiated with the almighty for nothing more than 1 of each!...this is my view.
  6. On Swelling of Fed Balance Sheet - Its better that Fed should swell it further, as we know the consequences if they don't do it while the consequences of doing it is not as harmful. Trick is to keep borrowing in own currency (As you can thus never default) as debt is not re-paid but just refunded. 
  7. Negative interest rate makes the float from insurance premium to Berkshire inferior?? - Buffet says if companies are able to do what they were doing before interest rates were positive there is no need to worry to much about negative interest rate.
  8. Companies that require less capital to offer same or higher growth are best companies to stay invested
  9. Getting-real-rich (super returns) is different from staying-real-rich (decent returns) - Capital preservation is more important hence one should not get distracted by super-returns. 
  10. On share buybacks - It should be not only price-sensitive but also need-sensitive (If any owner wants cash for his shares, assuming it's a significant chunk, companies can always buy-back his shares). There is a risk of buying back at slightly/moderately expensive valuation, but this risk is present when you do acquisitions. 
  11. It's easy and more re-warding to sell money (as a commodity) than managing it - Index funds which earn less fees are never pushed to investors. 
  12. Buying stocks of oil companies are equivalent of taking bet on oil prices - Mr. Buffet says there is a risk of permanent capital loss for oil companies. 
  13. Air line industries - Sold of all the stake, Mr. buffet says he made a mistake by buying airline stocks as the future of this industry is much less clear. 
    1. Don't know how many passengers will fly after the COVID impact 2-3 years down the line.
    2. It’s a tough business as one small mistake puts life of so many people in danger. 
    3. Also the reputation of company is endangered. 
    4. Oversupply of planes will also have pressure on pricing power. 
    5. Industry is highly capital intensive & over-dependance on borrowing is high. 

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